INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in February after having increased
by a revised 0.2 percent in January. These gains in output represent the first
consecutive monthly increases in industrial production since August and
September 2000. At 137.6 percent of its 1992 average, output in February was
4.1 percent below that in February 2001 and 6.5 percent below its recent peak
in June 2000. Manufacturing output increased 0.3 percent in February and an
upward revised 0.3 percent in January. The output at utilities increased 2.7
percent, but the production at mines declined 0.7 percent. Capacity
utilization for total industry rose 0.3 percentage point in February, to 74.8
percent, after having increased 0.1 percentage point in January.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY
Seasonally adjusted
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| 1992=100 | Percent change
| ----------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------
| 2001 2002 | 2001 2002 | Feb. '01 to
Industrial production | Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. | Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. | Feb. '02
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| | |
Total index | 137.2 136.8 137.1 137.6 | -.3 -.3 .2 .4 | -4.1
Previous estimates | 137.1 136.7 136.5 | -.4 -.3 -.1 |
| | |
Major market groups: | | |
Products, total | 126.7 126.6 126.4 126.7 | -.1 -.1 -.1 .2 | -4.1
Consumer goods | 120.0 120.8 120.4 120.8 | .3 .7 -.3 .3 | -.4
Business equipment | 167.2 164.2 164.5 163.9 | .2 -1.8 .1 -.4 | -12.0
Construction supplies | 134.0 135.3 135.2 136.4 | -.4 .9 .0 .9 | -1.6
Materials | 154.8 153.8 155.0 156.0 | -.7 -.7 .8 .6 | -4.0
| | |
Major industry groups: | | |
Manufacturing | 142.0 141.5 141.9 142.3 | -.1 -.3 .3 .3 | -4.1
Durable | 174.3 173.9 174.6 175.3 | .2 -.2 .4 .4 | -5.1
Nondurable | 110.2 109.7 110.0 110.1 | -.5 -.5 .2 .1 | -3.0
Mining | 99.0 97.3 97.0 96.4 | -.4 -1.8 -.3 -.7 | -5.7
Utilities | 116.2 117.3 116.9 120.1 | -2.7 .9 -.3 2.7 | -2.7
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| | Capacity
| Percent of capacity | growth
| --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------
| Average 1982 1988-89 2001 | 2001 2002 | Feb. '01 to
Capacity utilization | 1967-2001 Low High Feb. | Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. | Feb. '02
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| | |
Total industry | 81.9 71.1 85.4 78.9 | 74.7 74.4 74.5 74.8 | 1.2
Previous estimates | | 74.7 74.4 74.2 |
| | |
Manufacturing | 80.9 69.0 85.7 77.2 | 73.2 72.9 73.0 73.2 | 1.1
Advanced processing | 80.3 71.0 84.2 76.7 | 73.1 73.0 72.8 72.7 | .7
Primary processing | 82.0 65.7 88.3 77.9 | 73.2 72.7 73.4 73.9 | 1.8
Mining | 87.6 80.3 88.0 91.3 | 87.9 86.2 86.0 85.4 | .9
Utilities | 87.6 75.9 92.6 91.7 | 83.0 83.5 82.9 84.8 | 5.2
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Note: Estimates for February are preliminary. Estimates from November to January are revised.
Market Groups
The output of consumer goods rose 0.3 percent in February, thereby
reversing its January loss. Among durable consumer goods, the output of
appliances, furniture, and carpeting advanced sharply. The output of
automotive products, which fell back in January after two sharp monthly
increases, decreased slightly further. The production of home electronics,
which surged late last year, also dropped back for a second month. The output
of consumer nondurable goods, which was unchanged in January, rose 0.2 percent
in February. On balance, most major groups within this category have posted
small-to-moderate gains in recent months, while the output of consumer paper
products, mainly periodicals, books, and cards, has been curtailed sharply.
Business equipment remained weak; output fell 0.4 percent in February to a
level 12 percent below that of a year earlier. Within this group, the output
of transit equipment continued to contract as commercial aircraft assemblies
and related parts declined further. The production of industrial and other
equipment has been choppy recently, but, on balance, has continued to slide;
the farm, metalworking, and special industrial machinery industries have been
particularly weak. The output of information-processing equipment has improved
recently; the output of computers has increased, while the production of
communications equipment has flattened out at a low level. The production of
defense and space equipment again rose moderately.
The output of construction supplies posted a cumulative gain of nearly 2
percent over the three months ending in February. The production of business
supplies also was up noticeably and was led by increases in energy-related
industries.
The output of materials, rebounding from sizable declines during the latter
part of 2001, rose sharply in both January and February. The improvement has
been widespread in the sector. Among durable goods materials, the output of
basic metals and parts for equipment has picked up, while the expansion in the
output of parts for consumer durables, which began last autumn, has continued.
Among nondurables, the recent increases in production have been led by gains
in chemical and paper materials. The production of energy materials also rose
noticeably in February as coal and utility output increased.
Industry Groups
The gains in manufacturing output in January and February were led by a
rebound in the production of durable goods, such as steel and high-technology
products, and in nondurable goods, such as paper, chemicals, and tobacco. The
gain in high-technology industries reflected higher output of computers and
semiconductors; in addition, the production of communications equipment, which
had been falling precipitously since the fourth quarter of 2000, was about
unchanged in February. The output of motor vehicles and parts, which surged
toward the end of 2001, has been little changed, on net, since December. Most
other durable goods industries posted production gains in February after weak
performances in January. Among other nondurable goods, the output of printing
and publishing continued to fall.
Capacity utilization in manufacturing rose 0.2 percentage point in
February, to 73.2 percent; the turnaround in factory utilization began with a
0.1 percentage point increase in January. The improvement in the utilization
rate for manufacturing has been concentrated in primary-processing industries.
The utilization rate for this grouping increased 0.5 percentage point in
February after a 0.7 percentage point gain in the previous month. Although
utilization rates for several primary-processing industries have risen
somewhat since the end of last year, the bulk of the overall gain reflected a
nearly 6 percentage point jump in the operating rate for primary metals. The
operating rate for advanced-processing industries edged down again; changes
for most of these industries were small. Advanced-processing industries with
exceptionally low operating rates include electrical machinery, industrial
machinery and equipment, aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment,
apparel, and printing and publishing.
The jump in utility output mainly reflected the return to more normal
winter weather, as temperatures in February were closer to the historic norms
than during the previous few months. Even with the increase in utility output
in February, the operating rate at utilities was still nearly 3 percentage
points below its 1967-2001 average. The drop in mining output pushed its
operating rate to the lowest level since June 1999.
G.17 Release Tables:
